Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts
Purpose of the Game
Every year the most anticipated weather words are spoken: “what will the monsoon be like?”
Here’s your chance to use your experience and be a forecaster. At the Arizona Institute for Resilience we have been talking about the monsoon for decades. As climate scientists and people interested in the weather, we created a game where players make monsoon forecasts, score points based on them, and compete with others.
Game Overview
In Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts, players estimate the total monthly precipitation at each of the five major cities in the U.S. Southwest Monsoon region: Tucson, Phoenix, Flagstaff, Albuquerque, and El Paso. Points are awarded each month depending on the accuracy of the estimate compared to the actual observed rainfall. The goal is to accumulate the most points over the July, August, September period.
How it Works
You make forecasts of the total rainfall amount in a one-month period for each of July, August, and September. You make forecasts each month at five cities in the Southwest. You must make your forecasts prior to the first of each month (for example, you must make forecasts for July by June 30 at 11:59 PM; for August by July 31 at 11:59 PM, and for September by August 31 at 11:59 PM). You score points based on the riskiness and accuracy of your estimates compared to the actual rainfall. You compete against all other players.
Scoring
Points are scored each month and for each city, with the winner determined by the total points accumulated over the three months and five cities. For each month and each city, points are calculated by considering the “riskiness” of the forecast and its accuracy. The risk of the forecast depends on how likely it is to occur based on the historical data. Less likely estimates are those that occur further from the average. Riskier forecasts can score more points. The scoring also depends on the accuracy of the forecast. The more accurate the forecast is, the higher the percentage of the maximum points the player receives. More technical details on scoring can be found here.
Groups
Invite friends to play within your group and compare scores outside of the main game leaderboard. Group names are randomly generated, and you can share your invite code with as many players as you'd like. Create or request to join a group today to ensure bragging rights amongst your friends!
Login and visit the groups page for more information!
Let's Get Started
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